COVID-19 Research

Study title: Characterizing key attributes of the epidemiology of COVID-19 in China: Model-based estimations

This study identified and quantified large age differences in the biological susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Susceptibility was limited among children, intermediate among young adults and those mid-age, but high among those >50 years of age. 

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Study title: Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide

This study found that the age structure of the population could be driving large differences in infection spread, epidemic potential, and rates of disease severity and mortality across countries. Countries with sizable adult/elderly populations and smaller children populations could experience large and rapid epidemics in absence of interventions. Meanwhile, countries with predominantly younger age cohorts would experience smaller and slower epidemics. 

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Study title: Epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: mathematical modeling analyses

This study demonstrated that even a partially-efficacious vaccine can offer a fundamental solution to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and at high cost-effectiveness. A vaccine with efficacy in reducing susceptibility (VES) ≥70% at ≥80% coverage is likely to be sufficient to fully control the pandemic. Meanwhile, a vaccine with VES <70% can still fully control the infection if it additionally induces a reduction in infectiousness or faster infection clearance among those vaccinated who still acquire the infection. Alternatively, such vaccine may still control the infection if supplemented with moderate social distancing interventions (<20% reduction in contact rate), or complemented with partial herd immunity. 

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Title: Can the COVID-19 pandemic still be suppressed? Putting essential pieces together

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