Diabetes epidemic in Jordan expected to substantially grow over the next 30 years, WCM-Q study finds

The diabetes epidemic in the Middle East and North Africa region is one of the fastest growing epidemics globally. According to findings published in Scientific Reports of the Nature group, Jordan is confronted with a large and rising diabetes epidemic over the next 30 years. The number of people living with diabetes is projected to increase, testing the already strained healthcare system.

The study, ‘Characterizing the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Jordan up to 2050’, was the product of a research collaboration between the National Center for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Genetics in Jordan; Jordan University of Science and Technology, and Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar (WCM-Q) in Qatar. The study investigated and forecasted diabetes burden up to 2050 and estimated the costs of this epidemic.

“Currently 15% of Jordanians are suffering from diabetes which is already twice the global average,” said Professor Kamal Ajlouni, the president of the National Center for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Genetics in Jordan, and co-investigator of this study. “By 2050, we forecasted that more than one in every five adults in Jordan will be suffering from diabetes. Diabetes prevalence will reach 21% if no immediate prevention programs are implemented.”

 “Jordan is destined to confront an immense healthcare challenge, but also an escalating health expenditure,” said Dr. Susanne Awad, research associate at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar and first author of the study. “The number of people suffering from diabetes in Jordan is projected to increase to 2 million by 2050, straining an already resource-strained healthcare system. If no large-scale population interventions are implemented, the country will spend one-quarter of its national health expenditure on diabetes.”  

The study also concluded that most cases of diabetes are caused by the obesity epidemic in Jordan.

“There are several causes to the diabetes epidemic such as sedentary lifestyle and smoking. However, the combined impact of these was much smaller than that of obesity.” Said Professor Yousef Khader, professor in the department of public health at Jordan University of Science and Technology and co-investigator of this study. “Currently, one-third of Jordanians are obese. It is projected that 41% will be obese by 2050, causing two-thirds of diabetes cases.”

  “The study showed how critical it is to address the diabetes epidemic in Jordan. It is a priority to immediately focus on public health and lifestyle interventions to control, or even reverse the rising diabetes burden through individual- and population-based prevention approaches,” said Professor Laith Abu-Raddad, professor of population health sciences at Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar and principal investigator of the study. “We need to focus on trying to decrease obseity and to prevent new diabates cases from happening otherwise we may not be able to afford the costs of dealing with such a large epidemic. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of regional collaborations to characterize, better understand, and provide common solutions to diabetes, one of the primary health priorities in our region”.

The study, ‘Characterizing the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Jordan up to 2050’, was conducted utilizing research methodologies developed with funding from the Qatar National Research Fund (QNRF) through the National Priorities Research Program grant 10-1208-160017.

Key scientific findings of the study

• One in every five adults in Jordan will be suffering from diabetes by 2050.
• One-quarter of Jordan’s national health expenditure will be consumed by diabetes by 2050.
• Two-thirds of diabetes cases in Jordan will be caused by obesity by 2050.